Presidential polls live updates: Donald Trump extends his lead over Kamala Harris in Daily Mail's election prediction model

From Rob Crilly, Chief U.S. Political Correpondent in Washington, D.C.

Our friends at J.L. Partners have run the numbers in our election model to provide the latest snapshot of who is favorite to win on November 5.

The results show the outcome is still very much in toss-up territory. Donald Trump has slightly extended his lead, with a 59.8 percent chance of winning.

That moves it a shade closer to 'lean Trump' territory.

At the same time, Michigan and Wisconsin have moved towards Trump, which means the most likely outcome is for the former president to sweep the seven swing states.

But it is worth nothing that the update is based on a series of polls from pollsters whose results tend to be favorable towards the former president.

Will we see a correction from other polls in the next few days? Or is Trump on an upward trend that will see him win?

This is how Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, sees it:

Trump friendly polls have shifted things towards the former President in our model. Polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that are more Trump-y have entered the polling mix and have pushed things in his favour. Emerson college polls from Wisconsin and Michigan have also moved things in Trump's favor. Ultimately, this latest spate of polling, and the stability in our model, suggests that things are becoming baked in during these final few weeks.

Sarah Ewall-Wice, Senior U.S. Political Reporter in Phoenix, AZ:

Vice President Kamala Harris continued her appeal to Republican voters on Friday when she pitched a ‘bipartisan council of advisers’ while speaking at a Republicans for Harris event in Scottsdale, Arizona.

Harris had previously said she would appoint a Republican to her cabinet, but the council would provide ‘counsel’ on policy.

‘I love good ideas, wherever they come from,’ she said according to the pool report. ‘We need a healthy two-party system.’

During the event, Harris told two stories about late Arizona GOP Senator John McCain who she also praised Thursday night at her rally.

She recalled how he once called her over on the Senate floor and said ‘Kid, come over here, you’re going to make a great senator’ after they had squared off in a committee room. 'True story.'

‘John McCain stood on principle. He stood on a belief in the importance of patriotism, of sacrifice, of what we stand for as a country,’ Harris said.

Mesa Republican Mayor John Giles was in attendance for the event after having spoken at the Democratic National Convention.

Other speakers included former Scottsdale Mayor Sam Campana, a member of Republicans for Harris and Joel John, a former state representative and co-chair of Latter-day Saints for Harris.

There are more than 400,000 members of the Latter-day Saints church in Arizona, making it the second largest religious denomination in the state.

By Jon Michael Raasch, U.S. Political Reporter for DailyMail.com

Speaking to a crowd of thousands of MAGA faithful in Aurora, Colorado, Donald Trump announced a brand new illegal migrant operation named after the town.

'Operation Aurora' will target the notorious transnational Venezuelan criminal gang Tren De Aragua.

Trump delivered the new policy objective while standing next to blown-up mugshots of several of the gang members apprehended by the Aurora Police Department.

A video from August shows several of the illegal migrants openly carrying a rifle and handguns around an Aurora apartment complex without fear of repercussion while making threats to tenants.

Just after the video was recorded, a 25-year-old was shot and killed in the complex. At least one gang member was reportedly a part of the armed group.

Trump said Friday that Operation Aurora would act as a gang member removal program invoking the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 'to target and dismantle every illegal migrant criminal network operating on American soil.'

Former President Donald Trump focused on illegal migration in a speech in Aurora, Colorado, on Friday.

The city has been dealing with an influx of migrants, particularly from Venezuela.

'In Venezuela their crime rate went down 72 percent,' he said. 'Now we have to live with these animals.'

'But we aren't going to have to live with them for long.'

Trump blamed Kamala Harris for the administration's open border policies that have made America less safe.

An ad featuring men who are 'man enough' to vote for Kamala Harris is going viral for it's message to 'real men' about how to process the idea of a woman in the Oval Office.

The ad sparked confusion and mockery on social media as users tried to understand whether it was real.

Donald Trump may have turned down Fox News' invitation for a debate with Kamala Harris but he has agreed to appear on the network at an unusual town hall next week, answering questions in front of an all-women audience.

The 2024 election has been characterized by a massive gender gap, with Trump winning heavily among men while Kamala Harris is cleaning up with female voters.

Next week's town hall will focus on 'issues impacting women ahead of the election,' said Fox News on Friday, including abortion, child care, health care and pocket book issues.

The event will be recorded in Cumming, Georgia, on Tuesday for broadcast the following day at 11am. The moderator is Fox host Harris Faulkner.

Even if you don't know a blockchain from a NFT, these numbers are hard to dismiss: More than $200 million from cryptocurrency companies is expected to be pumped into the 2024 election cycle as the tech industry works overtime to boost its political influence.

And the emerging tech giants aren't selectively backing Republicans or Democrats -any candidate, from president all the way down to small congressional districts, who champions crypto puts themselves in a position to score the big bucks.

But will the political plays by so-called 'Big Crypto' pay off in the long run?

Crypto, which includes Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin and more, is a form of digital currency that can be used to make 'decentralized' transactions online without oversight by a bank or government.

The industry is keen on having a less-regulated playing field to serve as a sandbox for development of crypto. Opponents and monetary traditionalists, meanwhile, want additional regulations on the alternative, digital currencies.

Fairshake, a political action committee (PAC), and others pushing pro-crypto legislation are going big with nearly $119 million already spent out of $200 million raised.

And billionaire former President Donald Trump weighing in on the importance of the alternative financial industry as he campaigns for a White House return shows that it isn't going away anytime soon.

By Emily Goodin, senior White House correspondent

President Joe Biden criticized Donald Trump for spreading misinformation about relief measures for Hurricanes Helene and Milton, complaining the former president ‘has the biggest mouth.’

Biden conceded Trump isn’t the sole actor responsible for conspiracy theories about the government response to the disasters but still got in a hit at the Republican presidential candidate.

‘He has the biggest mouth,’ Biden said.

However, the president did say he supports Trump’s request for more security when he is out on the campaign trail.

The Trump campaign has asked for military aircraft to protect the former president when he travels given the threats Iran has made to him.

Biden said Trump should get the same level of protect as himself but joked he wouldn’t give the former president F-15s.

‘As long as he doesn’t ask for F-15s,’ Biden said when asked about Trump’s request.

‘I've told the department to give him every single thing he needs,’ he said, adding that Trump should be treated as if he ‘were a sitting president.

‘Give all that he needs. If it fits into that category, that’s fine.’

The ad, which will debut during the Detroit baseball Tigers and football team Lions games this weekend, is focused on trashing Trump's recent comments.

The ex-president curiously warned that the 'whole country will turn into Detroit' if Kamala Harris is elected while he was in Detroit on Thursday.

Donald Trump has a message for voters in hurricane-hit states: He will make generator purchases tax deductible.

In a post on Truth Social he slammed the federal government for its response to Hurricane Helene and Milton.

And he said the unusual activity of storms meant residents needed some extra help.

North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, South Carolina, Tennessee and, always, Louisiana, Texas, and other States: Due to the unusual activity of Storms, Hurricanes, and Tornadoes, and other Natural Disasters, especially in well-reported parts of our Country, when I win the Presidential Election of 2024, on November 5th, the Most Important Day in the History of our Country, we are going to allow you, retroactive to September 1st, 2024, to purchase a Generator for your Home, which will, in so doing, entitle you to fully deduct the TOTAL cost of said Generator for Income Tax Purposes.

Kamala Harris is obsessed with working out.

'I work out every morning, regardless of how much sleep I’ve had,' she told former President Barack Obama in a 2020 interview. 'It’s just the best way to start the day.'

But the Democratic presidential hopeful admits she has a bit less discipline when it comes to her diet, allowing herself to indulge on junk food.

Her go-to snack is Nacho Cheese Doritos and when it comes to cake, 'caramel is like my favorite,' Harris, 59, said during a campaign stop at a bakery in September.

Now, a food blogger has tried her diet for a day to find out what fuels America's next potential president. It comes after he tried Joe Biden and Donald Trump's diets.

Doctors told DailyMail.com sugar rushes and dips could explain Harris' giddy personality, trademark laugh and 'word salads'.

By Jon Michael Raasch, U.S. Political Reporter for DailyMail.com

Thousands of MAGA faithful arrived at the Gaylord Rockies Resort & Convention Center hours early waiting to get in.

The event, Trump's first in Colorado this cycle, drew scores of supporters.

So many showed up ahead of the event that the entry line at a time stretched at least a half mile.

Fans of former First Lady Melania Trump reacted angrily after Vice President Kamala Harris was bestowed a digital Vogue cover from the fashion magazine.

The cover was revealed Friday morning featuring Harris in a dark suit paired with $800 Tiffany's pearl earrings.

The package was compete with a glowing profile of Harris on the campaign trail featuring photos by famed photographer Annie Leibovitz.

That struck supporters of Melania Trump as deeply unfair, as the glamorous First Lady never got a Vogue profile or cover while her husband was president or even upon the recent release of her new memoir.

‘Imagine. Vogue – a now silly, decrepit shell of what it once was – has never put the most glamorous woman in America on its cover, Melania Trump,’ wrote conservative author Pamela Geller.

The Trump campaign has reportedly asked to use military aircraft for the last weeks of the race amid worries that Iran is plotting an assassination attempt.

Susie Wiles, one of Trump's top campaign officials, asked the Secret Service for the use of military vehicles, extra flight restrictions over rallies and ballistic glass prepositioned for events in swing states, according to the Washington Post.

Trump has survived two assassination attempts. And although neither was linked to Iran, there is intelligence that Iran is actively plotting to kill the former president.

Wiles made the requests in emails to Ronald L. Rowe Jr, the head of the Secret Service.

She also said the campaign had to cancel a public event at the last minute because of a 'lack of personnel.'

Trump has begun speaking from behind bullet-proof screens at outdoor events.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz tried to clean up recent comments about the utility of the Electoral College – saying his position was the same as the 'campaign position.'

Walz was asked about his own recent comments indicated that the Electoral College had outlived its usefulness – in the midst of a campaign where he and running mate Kamala Harris hold a nationwide polling lead but could still lose to Donald Trump in the states that will determine the winner.

'The point I’m trying to make is that there’s folks that feel every vote must count in every state, and I think some of the folks feel that’s not the case," Walz told Michael Strayhan in a sit-down interview on ABC's 'Good Morning America.'

Then he spoke about the campaign (which is also his campaign) and what 'their position' is. 'We’re out there making the case that the campaign’s position is clear, that that’s not their position. Their position and my position is to make sure that everybody understands their vote, no matter what state they’re in, matters.'

Former president Donald Trump seized on his predecessor Barack Obama’s comments accusing black men of being sexist for not backing Kamala Harris.

The former president gave a group of African-American voters a lecture about the low enthusiasm for Harris compared to when he was running for president.

'We have not yet seen the same kinds of energy and turnout in all quarters of our neighborhoods and communities as we saw when I was running. Now, I also want to say that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers,' Obama said.

He continued: 'Part of it makes me think - and I'm speaking to men directly - part of it makes me think that, well, you just aren't feeling the idea of having a woman as president, and you´re coming up with other alternatives and other reasons for that.'

'You're coming up with all kinds of reasons and excuses. I've got a problem with that.'

Trump posted on Truth Social on Friday: ‘Obama admits a total lack of enthusiasm for Kamala, especially with Black Men. I think Obama will be voting for me because he doesn’t like the fact that Kamala is an extremely Low IQ Person!’

When Kamala Harris went to work for the San Francisco city attorney's office, it was seen as a step down from her work as a prosecutor as she planned her campaign for District Attorney.

An old performance review from the city obtained exclusively by DailyMail.com suggests she did not take her work seriously.

Vogue Magazine published their glowing profile of Vice President Kamala Harris on Friday, revealing a long narrative of what it was like for her as she was swept up in the presidential race to claim the Democratic nomination after President Joe Biden dropped out.

Harris sat for an interview and participated in a photoshoot with famed photographer Annie Leibovitz for the profile at her home on October 7th.

The cover features Harris wearing her own Gabriela Hearst suit and $800 Tiffany earrings at the vice president's residence as it describes her as 'the candidate for our times.'

There are few new details about Harris in the profile, but the author follows along with her on the campaign trail and talks to people in her circle who describe her 'as a roll-up-the-sleeves leader.'

Harris says that if she is elected president, her first action will be to lower costs for the American people.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., fired back at President Joe Biden after he called on Congress to return before the election to vote on aid to assist hurricane recovery.

Biden on Thursday said Congress 'should be coming back and moving on emergency needs immediately.'

And DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas has said more money needs to be authorized as hurricane season continues.

Johnson's spokesperson fired back in a statement:

To be clear: Congress will act again upon its return in November to address funding needs and ensure those impacted receive the necessary resources.

The lawmaker has said the agency can operate fine on the over $20 billion Congress authorized last month.

Polls this week show Kamala Harrisis outperforming Donald Trump with women.

But in some battleground states, she is trailing by more than a dozen points among men.

According to a New York Times/Siena College poll of male voters, Trump leads nationally by 51 percent to 40 percent.

Democrats are starting to fear she isn’t making enough inroads with men to secure a victory in November.

Black and Latino men also appear to be a problem for Harris. A USA Today/Suffolk University poll from this week showed Trump leading among Latino men between the ages of 18 and 34 by 51 percent to Harris’ 39 percent.

His support increases in older Latino men aged 35 to 49 with 57 percent compared to 37 percent for Harris.

A new Wall Street Journal poll of voters in seven battleground states revealed that the race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is still extremely tight.

Harris has a small lead in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Georgia while Trump is edging her out in Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

But almost of the results are within the margin of error, which is an indicator that the presidential contest is going to come down to the wire.

Notably, voters in the survey said that they trust Trump over Harris to handle top issues including securing the southern border and the economy.

JD Vance turned an awkward situation into applause after someone collapsed during an event with Danica Patrick in North Carolina.

Donald Trump's running mate was speaking when the person shrieked and fell down to gasps from the crowd.

As the Ohio Senator rushed over to them, he decided to make light of it, saying: 'Kamala Harris built this platform behind us.'

The audience gave both laughs and a standing ovation for the Republican VP nominee's joke as Vance cracked a smile.

Vance was participating in a town hall conversation with the former racecar driver in Greensboro Thursday night.

Barack Obama's crude joke at President Donald Trump during his first solo campaign event for Kamala Harris has spectacularly backfired.

Speaking at the University of Pittsburgh Thursday night, Obama hinted that he believed that the 78-year-old Trump wore adult diapers.

Obama, 63, recalled that he couldn't believe how expensive diapers were when he became a parent. 'Do you think Donald Trump ever changed a diaper?' he mused.

'His own!' yelled back an audience member.

'I almost said that, but I decided I should not say it,' Obama said with a laugh.

Social media was not amused, with at least one X user making an ironic reference to the president's former running mate: 'Obama would know about changing diapers. He does for Joe.'

Barack Obama accused black male voters who refuse to support Kamala Harris of sexism and demanded they get on board with the Democrat nominee.

The former president was at a campaign field office in Pittsburgh to thank volunteers, but instead gave them a lecture, saying he wanted to 'speak some truths.'

Obama said he was responding to reports on the ground that there was lower enthusiasm for Harris than there was for his own candidacy and that some black men were thinking of sitting out the election.

Vice President Kamala Harris was put in the hot seat by a group of undecided Hispanic voters in Nevada on Thursday where she was pressed over a series of key issues from immigration to health care.

But as the vice president looks to lock in support from this key voting bloc with just 26 days to be before Election Day, she played it safe, sidestepping on some hot button issues and resorting back to talking points she often uses on the campaign trail.

The hour-long town hall was tapped at the University of Nevada Las Vegas to air nationally on Univision on Thursday night.

Journalist Enrique Acevedo moderated the program where at times he also played translator as questions were posed both in Spanish and English by the voters.

Former President Donald Trump will also participate in a Univision town hall with undecided Hispanic voters next week after a taping earlier this week was delayed due to Hurricane Milton.

Here are the takeaways from the vice president's town hall: